An Uncertain Future

The Cuban missile crisis is probably the most important moment in World History in the 20^th century. In the aftermath of World War II, the world was divided between two large contours of capitalism lead by the United States and communism lead by the erstwhile Soviet Union. Tensions between them termed ‘Cold War’ lead to proxy wars and conflicts in many third world countries. If the Korean War of the 1950s was a crucial episode, the Cuban missile crisis in 1962 was its zenith. The USA through reconnaissance aircraft found that Soviets ships were ferrying ‘offensive’ missiles to Cuba, an ally of USSR which was off the coast of USA. Faced with a complex decision of blockading Cuba and preventing the takeover of West Berlin, which was Soviet’s plan if the USA launched an offensive on Cuba, JFK resorted to a combination of a diplomatic blockade and a stern warning to the USSR. As the Soviet’s plan was exposed its leader Khrushchev agreed to have a summit meeting in the month of November to defuse the situation. If the situation had gone out of control the world would have ended in a nuclear war.

                Donald Trump will be filling a position of such importance when he takes up his presidency in two months from now. He will become the leader of the most powerful nation on earth. The verdict has seen shock, disbelief, and awe in every part of the world. Anti-Trump protests have been raging since the results were announced in the USA. There are multiple reasons for opposition. Trump’s political campaign was founded on fear, race, religion, culture and restoring the greatness of the nation. He has made statements which alienated almost every section of the American society. But to introspect why the world is worried one has to dig deeper.

                Trump is unpredictable. Throughout his campaign, he has made contradictory promises which make it extremely difficult to chart the course of action the man will choose to tread.

Foreign Policy

                The biggest question is in his approach to foreign policy. Trump’s campaign was built on addressing the issues of the working class which needs Trump to turn inward rather than focusing on issues abroad. American foreign policy from the last century has been founded on preserving and spreading the ideas of liberalism and democracy. This is a primary reason for USA influencing domestic politics in many nations since the turn of WWII. Trump is skeptical of NATO and has made friendly statements towards Russia.

                If Trump is to turn inward its European allies (France, Germany, UK) and the friends in the Asia Pacific (South Korea, Japan) will have a hard time combating a rising Russia and China. And his hostility towards the Islamic world is well known. He has pledged to scrap the peace deal with Iran which was one of the hallmarks of Obama’s tenure. It remains to be seen the kind of power play he would dictate in the chaotic Middle East. It also remains to be seen if the strong friendship between Israel and USA would stand the test of Trump’s tenure. But there lies in the first contradiction. If Trump is keen about restoring America’s greatness would turn inward the real way to do it? Isn’t the America he visualizes the only Superpower? Should not he be pursuing an aggressive policy against known rivals?

Trade

                Scrapping the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a free-trade agreement involving 12 Pacific rim countries was top of his political agenda. He is deeply skeptical of Free trade and hence other trade agreements with Europe and even within American continent lies in shambles. This brings into focus his policy in the World Trade Organization. It would eventually hurt countries like China too. But how far would he go to Free Trade?

Is he for the banks or the poor?

                Trump pledged to serve the working class but never underlined any concrete policy decisions except scrapping free trade agreements. He based his candidature on the fact that he is a man ‘against’ the establishment and hence he would be the one to take on the Wall Street. This introduces a truckload of contradictions. Donald Trump is a billionaire whose business has gone bankrupt more than once and banks saved him. Would he go against institutions which helped him run his business? Trump has promised tax cuts for the rich and is adamant on taking out Obamacare policy which provided health care benefits for 20 million people. Are these pro-working class?

Photo Courtesy: Gage Skidmore

Blow to Liberalism but to capitalism?

                Trump is undoubtedly on the far right on the political spectrum. His antagonism towards the press was seen throughout his campaign trail. A 2005 tape which kicked a storm on his attitude towards women was dismissed by him as locker room talk. Following the incident close to a dozen women publicly came out narrating inappropriate encounters with Donald Trump. The fact that it did not prevent him from becoming the President narrates deeper divide within the American society on misogyny and women’s rights. The fact that he gets to elect a conservative judge will question the prevalent abortion laws in the USA. Is an illiberal America Great?

It is difficult to picture a ‘real’ wall across Mexico though he has promised one. He is vehement against immigration and it is unlikely that the number of visas will improve the next four years. But this brings in the question of making America great again. Migrants have been a source of strong talent in the USA which has enabled to keep itself on the cutting edge of innovation. They importance is underlined by the fact the USA’s demographic window closed long back in 1990. Migrants have been a source of labor population too. Will a reversal of this policy make America great?

                Global capitalism took off in the 1970s following many countries adopting flexible exchange rate system of currency. The number of free trade agreements has increased exponentially in the last forty years. The efficacy of the system was severely questioned in the economic crisis of 2008. The fact that there has not been concrete recovery since then has enabled people to question the model of present capitalism itself. ‘Liberalism’ propelled capitalism forward by enabling free movement of factors of production.

                This was a primary reason for the industrial regions of the USA turning into a ‘rust-belt’ as companies shifted owing to ‘cheap’ labor in developing countries. And Trump’s call of scrapping trade agreements found many takers in these States. Will Trump’s efforts to contain liberalism affect capitalism? Does it mean the world is heading away from free trade and towards different ideology? The last time America went against Free Trade was following the Great Depression in 1933 when it turned inward to take care of itself. Back then it wasn’t a super power but now won’t it compromise its global superpower status? Would that Make America great? Is a less capitalist America great?

His Greatest Challenge

                “I will be the President for all America” were Trump’s words in his acceptance speech. Nowhere in recent history has this country been divided so much. Trump has received one of the highest shares from white voters in recent times (the difference between him and Hillary is at 21 percent). The alienation among different racial and religious minorities is out in the open too with the vote share percentage.

                It is questionable how far Trump is responsible for instigating differences on race and culture. But the question is why the liberals never listened to the cries of the dissenters? Why were the liberals so concerned about opening all gates while they ignored breeding tolerance among natives? Why did the Left fail to channelize the working class? Has the Left forgotten its grass-roots as far as leaving the working class to vote for a billionaire? Does this victory mean that misogyny is tolerated? These are disturbing questions from a fractured society. It is also expected that this wave would spread to other countries especially Europe where the European Union seems shaken badly after Brexit.

Donald Trump has a Himalayan task of unifying this society and achieving the objective of ‘Making America Great again’. Challenges originate from the contradictions which have defined his Presidential campaign. I took an online course on World History a few weeks ago. My Professor during his analysis uses a cycle of ‘Situation-Problem-Solution’ and used to say, “People see a situation. They perceive problems or opportunities. Based on that they propound solutions and make choices which create a completely new situation. It is these choices which shape the course of history. Then the cycle repeats”.

Faced with this complex task, it remains to be seen what kind of choices would Donald Trump make considering that Americans have chosen him as their President. The only thing we know that is that his choices are unpredictable and the future uncertain. 

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Gage Skidmore